A Healthy Change? What are the Prospects for Healthcare if we Elect a Conservative Government?

May 04, 2010

Healthcare is always a huge issue at election time. In fact, for millions of individuals up and down the country, the state of healthcare provision in the UK is always of vital importance: often, indeed, a matter of life and death..

We’re now only a few days away from the general election and it seems there is still all to play for: Labour certainly look weakened, but cannot be counted out; the Liberal Democrats have risen as if from nowhere to become a real contender in the race; while the Conservatives seem to be balancing on a precarious lead, grasping for the extra votes that can confirm their majority.

If, just a few months ago, you were to have asked most political pundits who they expected to be in power by the end of the year they’d have probably said the Conservatives. Today, with the rise of the Lib Dems and the failure of David Cameron to galvanise support, it seems like a Tory government isn’t so certain after all... but even so, if one party is to gain a majority in this election, the Conservatives are more likely than any other to do so.

So, Arrows Group’s Healthcare Division has been asking, if we do elect a Tory government this month, what can we expect for the future of the healthcare sector?

The answer is a little difficult to decipher. Working from Conservative policy pledges it seems like the changes can be boiled down to three things: increased spending, increased personal choice and heavy cuts in managerial expenditure to redirect extra money to frontline staff.

All of this sounds positive, but it’s hard to say how realistic it might be. Can administration costs within the NHS really be slashed by one third (meaning a cut of between £3-5bn in spending), without any negative impact on service?

The addition of extra choice into the system also raises concerns. The Conservatives pledge to allow healthcare users to choose their own healthcare providers, which the NHS will then pay for treatment. Would this reduce strain on the NHS or just take money out of the system and into the private sector? Also, could this more complex system really be managed effectively even with current administration costs, let alone after the huge planned cut in this area?

The Conservatives also plan to eliminate many of the targets that currently govern NHS policy. The theory here is certainly appealing: it should remove the target-chasing  culture and return more focus to patient care. But at the same time Tory policy is to publish detailed data about hospitals and other healthcare providers online to increase individual choice. While this again sounds positive in theory, is this just replacing one set of target metrics with another; again, whilst slashing the budget for administrating this measurement?

As Rangeeta Bhamra, Manager of Arrows Group Healthcare Division puts it: “predicting the effect of a Conservative government on the healthcare sector and separating the politics from reality is an almost impossible task. It seems there is some truth and some spin in both the Conservatives’ own policies and in the attacks of their rival parties. How the policies translate into the real world, just like the winner of the election, is something that only time can tell.”